The Impact of Freshmen On-Track Status, Absenteeism, and Associated Demographic Variables on Four-Year Graduation Attainment within a Rural Community: A Predictive Validity Study
Date of Award
Doctor of Education (EdD)
School of Education
Dane Joseph, PhD
Scot Headley, PhD
Susanna Thornhill, PhD
This study analyzed the predictive validity of key dropout indicators at the freshmen year within a rural school district. Specifically, the study examined the predictive validity of the freshmen on-track indicator and freshmen absenteeism as predictors of four year, on-time graduation attainment. While most of the Early Warning System (EWS) research has taken place in large urban and suburban schools districts, this study used secondary data spanning four years from a small, rural school district. Additionally, the study sought to explore which student academic and behavior metrics had the greatest predictive validity for the rural student sample. Binomial logistic regression was used to analyze the secondary data. The analysis found a statistically significant relationship between graduation attainment and three of the study’s variables (economically disadvantaged status, freshmen on-track status, and absenteeism). Developing effective dropout prediction models can assist educators in providing more timely and targeted interventions for potentially at-risk students. Additionally, the results of this study may provide additional insights into the predictive capabilities of these key student academic and behavioral early warning indicators with rural student samples.
Hoff, Joel, "The Impact of Freshmen On-Track Status, Absenteeism, and Associated Demographic Variables on Four-Year Graduation Attainment within a Rural Community: A Predictive Validity Study" (2019). Doctor of Education (EdD). 125.